Monday Political Updates

Most Powerful Man in the U.S. Steps Down
Senator Robert Byrd (aged 91 on Nov 20, 2008) stepped down as Chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee and will hand the gavel to 84-year old Senator Daniel Inouye of Hawaii (what, we couldn’t find a septuagenarian?) Byrd has been a continuous member of the Senate since 1959 – and a member of this most important Senate Committee (handing out nearly $1 Trillion a year!) for 50-years. He will remain a member of the Appropriations Committee. His current Senate Term will expire in 2012.

I’ve said many times that the Presidency is over-rated in terms of raw political power, and the real power is in the combined hands of our Legislators. If that is truly the case, then Senator Byrd has long been the most powerful man in the US. (And if you don’t believe me, just look at what his chairmanship has meant to West Virginia!)

Perhaps less well known, Senator Byrd is a Mason – a Famous Mason! He was also perhaps most responsible for starting my dear friend, Masonic brother and mentor, Robert Wolfarth, on his Masonic journey. Robert used to work on Capitol Hill and was influenced to look in to our Honorable Fraternity when he heard Byrd and other Senators and Masons speak glowingly of their ties to the Fraternity.

We haven’t had a Masonic US President since President Ford, but Senator Byrd and others (Sam Nunn, Jack Kemp, John Glenn, Charles Grassley, Mark Hatfield – to name a few) have continued the time-honored tradition of Masonic Service to our Nation.

Wasatch Lodge No. 1 Election Results
On Friday, November 7, 2008, Wasatch Lodge No 1 of Salt Lake City, Utah, held elections for the principal officers of the Lodge for the year 2009. Leon Crockett, a Salt Lake Attorney, was elected Worshipful Master of Wasatch Lodge to replace Worshipful Brother Jason Mitchell, who has served the Lodge admirably for the last year. Leon is a well-respected member of the Utah Bar, has argued several times before the Utah Supreme Court, a Shrine Clown - and a effective fundraiser for the Shrine Hospital and other laudable charities. He is also one of the kindest men I know.

For those unfamiliar with Masonic doings, a man becomes a “Worshipful Brother” rather than a “Brother” when he is elected Worshipful Master, or Master of his Lodge. This is also sometimes referred to as being “elected to the East,” because the Lodge Master sits in the East of a Lodge. Unlike other organizations, Masons do not run for office. Master Masons in good standing vote, and a simple majority is required for an “election.”

Thirty-seven of the Master Masons of Wasatch Lodge were in attendance at the Friday Elections, along with several Masonic visitors (including four Grand Lodge Officers), and several of the Entered Apprentices and Fellowcrafts of Wasatch Lodge.

Douglas Backes, an Engineer at ATK, was elected Senior Warden, and Branden Sylvester, Owner of SilverStar Services, was elected Junior Warden. All are what we refer to as “upright men and Masons,” (truly good and moral men!) Taken together, these three principal officers – Worshipful Master, Senior and Junior Wardens, are the equivalent of the President, 1st and 2nd Vice Presidents of any other organization or fraternity. During Lodge meetings they sit in the East, West and South of the Lodge and govern the Lodge.

Jason Varner announced that he had no desire to be re-elected to the office of Lodge Secretary, and was replaced by newcomer Michael Anderson who has been serving as Assistant Secretary. Worshipful Brother Varner was recently appointed to an office in the Grand Lodge of Utah.

Jason was one of the first members of Wasatch Lodge I ever met, has been a stalwart and a stabilizing force in the Lodge for years, and is as dedicated a Mason as ever there was. He will be sorely missed – although Michael will do a fine job.

Like Brother Varner, Worshipful Brother Jason Allred also announced that he had no desire to be elected to another term as Treasurer and was replaced by the election of Worshipful Brother Scott Anderson.

There is little I enjoy as much as being with my Masonic Brothers, and whether it is a meeting to transact business or ritual, the Quarterly Communications (dinner and a lecture), or the Book of the Month Club “dinners” at The Other Place Restaurant, I always feel like I am warmly surrounded and truly accepted by some of the finest men in the Valley.

A few moments of diversion

I was genuinely delighted to see that the so-called “Bradley Affect” did not come in to play in the recent election and it appears that the nation chose a president that embodies hope for a better future without regard to race or religion. There is a feel of authentic optimism in the nation, despite the continued fall of the Dow Jones since election night.

If you’ll allow me a few moments diversion from the contest that fills many of my free, waking and non-working moments (the quest for the College National Football Championship) I’ll share a few thoughts about a few other delights and disappointments of the recent election.

First, a few delights. I’m delighted to see the end of election commercials. This election cycle has been going on for nearly two-years and it is just too long. Sports seasons are too long when the NBA, MBL and NFL are all vying for viewers at the same time (October.) And yet, they were more than a year shorter than this election.

I’m also thrilled to see Democrats in Utah show some real signs of life. How nice to see we finally have what appears to be a living, breathing opposition party in the state. If nothing more, a vibrant opposition keeps the majority party on its toes – something that has been missing for quite some time in Utah!

Now then, just a few disappointments. Our Congress continues to contain the two men who did more to bring about our current financial crisis than any other two people anywhere else, including all the CEOs of poorly managed financial institutions. I speak, of course, of Senator Chuck Schumer (D. NY) and Representative Barney Frank (D.Mass.) If you haven’t followed the careers of these two well-dressed circus clowns, you ought to pay more attention. It would be appropriate to nick-name them Senator Freddie Mac and Representative Fannie Mae.

Was there anything more disappointing than getting to know Sarah Pallin? She came in, guns blazing, and looked like a true breath of fresh air. Democrats reacted immediately by trying to shut her up, but after the Couric interview, everyone figured out that she was more damaging to her party if she talked. And she talked ad nauseum. Did anyone fit the old adage “familiarity breeds contempt,” better than her?

I’m still disappointed that Senator “Hair-Plugs” is the Vice-President Elect. What was Mr. Obama thinking? Well, maybe he’ll ask Oprah to be Secretary of the Treasury and Biden won’t remain his worst decision for long.

Lastly, I cannot believe that the people of my district sent Chris Buttars back to the Utah Senate for another term by a little more than 2,000 votes. No wonder Utah looks like the backwoods to the residents of other states.

Now that the election is over and we are waiting for the announcement of the new “Dream Team” that will tackle the economy, we can get back to answering the questions that truly matter, like:

Who does the current No. 1, Alabama, play this weekend? (The Tide are at LSU.) Good luck with that!

Will Texas Tech burn out of the Top Ten this week? Or next? (If Ok State doesn’t get them this week, Ok will the following week!)

Will Penn State fans ever stop whining? (Not even if they play in the BCS Championship game!)

And how much are they asking for BYU/UTAH tickets on eBay? ($800-$1200) Are they kidding?!?!

Financial Clarity

No doubt about it, these are tough times, the kind that “try men’s souls,” as Thomas Paine said about another time. But they are also times that clarify and illuminate.

I’ve got several bright, gorgeous daughters - all very unique. The youngest can unconsciously memorize a movie in one sitting. She has recited movie lines humorously in general conversation since she was first able to talk.

She also memorizes the lines from commercials, and when she was younger she used to tell us where to get something to solve a problem with “pitch-perfect” lines from those commercials.

As my youngest has grown up she has learned something of the Art of Spin. She's come to see the claims of commercials are questionable at best. Not long ago she asked, "Dad, why do commercials tell us the opposite of what we know from our experience about a company or product?”

Well, just as Nat as learned from experience, our experiences are clarifying banker spin for us. Bankers have told us that they will be “with you” at every stage, phase or time in life. The same bankers have told their employees that they are “the most important asset.”

Spin is a world of words. Ad campaigns are devised to attract customers. Speeches about “most important assets” are designed to placate and motivate employees. All of those ads or speeches are words. Actions, on the other hand, suggest true motives, and the actions of bankers have been illuminating.

Governments have responded to the death gasps of banks, providing needed liquidity in order to save them from extinction with amazing largess in order to keep the economy moving. Yet, even as liquidity is ensured, banks have virtually stopped the flow of credit in our economy because they are no longer “with” their customers.

Credit may not fuel our economy but it does keep things moving. Without continued lending, businesses and consumers will continue to hold on to the little money they have left - and the wheels of our economy will continue to slow.

As the stock price has fallen, that “most important asset” is the one you find in increasing numbers packing the contents of a cubicle into a cardboard box.

While the lending economy was booming, a handful of bank managers managed to take millions in profits out of the banks in salaries, bonuses and options. Those funds are not available to restore bank capital or liquidity today.

From those actions we can see clearly now just what is important to a bank:
* Number One Stakeholder: Shareholders (not customers!)
* Number One Asset: The Stock Price (not employees!)
* Number One Beneficiary: Senior Management (not even the shareholder!)

Now I know, individual players in a capitalist system are supposed to be driven by self-interest. Their self-interested actions are supposed to mesh with the self-interest of others. This is all supposed to be mutually satisfying and allow the economy to be self-perpetuating. And if a capitalist system is out of whack, the standard business cycle is supposed to restore balance.

What is clear today is that what is in the self-interest of banks and bankers is not meeting the self-interested needs of any of their customers. They aren't even doing what governments want them to do. Their self-interest is so muscular they will wreck an economy and the lives of millions to survive.

So why do so many Americans continue to think we ought to put our money in the hands of bankers? It is quite clear you are no better than second on their list – and even that is debatable. And you are not helpless in the face of a robust monopoly.

There is another option: Credit Unions.

A credit union is a cooperative, member-owned, locally and democratically governed financial institution. Credit unions are set up to give their members cheaper or better services and to return any profits to the members. The elected directors are unpaid volunteers and they are there to represent the members - both as owners and customers.

But the strength of the credit union movement is not what they are or have or even do, but in what they do not have: a stock price! Because there is no stock price, Credit Unions can manage for the long-term. As a result, very few credit Unions have been caught up in the conflagration that has wreaked havoc on the balance sheets of the nation’s banks.

Most credit unions are still loyally lending to their loyal members. Oh, and their officers have to get rich the old fashioned way - saving and investing some of their modest pay packages just like the members of their credit union.

The difference between banks and credit unions may never have been more apparent. Will the recent evidence make any difference to you? It should.

Are We Any Smarter?

What have we learned in the early days of the most recent economic melt-down?
Well, for starters, the old adage about draining swamps and alligators fits to some degree – but stops short of telling us what people do when they are up to their noses in swamp water and those alligators are snapping.

Confidence
Henry (Paulson, Secretary of the US Treasury) completely forgot that he was trying to restore confidence and liquidity. In the heat of the moment he decided instead to buy ownership in banks. We now know that doesn’t improve confidence, and as for liquidity…

Liquidity
We have learned that when you restore banker’s liquidity and ask them to lend to consumers they buy other banks.

Herds
Herds form, we have learned, in times of crisis. We’ve seen consumers bunch together as a “non-spending” Consumer Herd, bankers cluster as a “non-lending” Financial Herd, various governments mass as the “new owners of banks” Savior Herd, and businesses clumping up as the “cutting back and laying off” Business Herd.

What we do not know is what might happen if just one of those herds behaved differently in this crisis than they do in every crisis. If, for example, the Consumer Herd decided to forgo self-preservation and start spending, do you think some of the other herds in the equation would simply snap up and hoard the cash?

I do. The problem with an emotional self-serving model is that it is so … well, emotionally self-serving!

Capitalism
Just before they had to jump in and save their own banks, several European leaders pronounced the death of capitalism with real glee. They are not alone. It is no longer anathema in the U.S. to say that capitalism is a flawed system.

While our own leaders have done little if anything to restore confidence in our economic system, it was French President Nicolas Sarkozy who gave an insightful analysis in a speech in Toulon, saying, “The financial crisis is not the crisis of capitalism. It is a crisis of a system that has distanced itself from the most fundamental values of capitalism, which betrayed the spirit of capitalism.”

Exactly.

The Gordon Gekko, “Greed is Good,” or Ivan Boesky, “Greed is Right,” philosophy rose to its pinnacle in the 1980s.

Self-interest is a human trait. Better to deal with it that pretend it doesn't exist or can be wiped out. Greed, of course, is self-interest taken to the extreme, and is why free-markets do not remain free without regulation and regulators to police them.

Perhaps the “virtue” of unadulterated greed has been exposed for what it is, and perhaps we will no longer worship at its altar.

So, was it just plain old Greed?
No. But we all love a conspiracy. There is nothing like a conspiracy built on greed to bring out the theorist in all of us. But conspiracies are for simpletons who like uncomplicated answers to truly complex problems.

If you have to have a simple, one-line answer to the problem, the better answer is that we are where we are today because of mismanagement by the very people who should have known better.

There was no one element of the financial markets – including Congress, the Fed, and Treasury, that did not mismanage either the boom or the resulting bust to some degree or another. There is plenty of blame to go around. But no one is going to admit to their own culpability while they can point out the other players or take the easy one word answer.

Regulators
Speaking of Regulation and Regulators, we have learned that when Regulators disengage, and the markets run amok, said Regulators will rapidly and aggressively re-engage, take the regulatory balance from one extreme to the other, and kill any possibility of a quick-turn around.

So what does it mean for the near future?
It is easy to be doom and gloom at a time like this but we have not seen the worst of the downturn even if the banking crisis is over. Most non-food retailers make their year's much needed profit in that five-week period between Thanksgiving and Christmas in the U.S.

Here’s the rub. The Consumer Herd is scared to spend and the Holiday Retail Season is largely driven by consumer spending. This Holiday Retail Season could very well be the worst in more than 20-years.

Don’t bet on a bottom to this thing until sometime in the 3rd quarter of 2009.

And for those who remember the last real downturn in the economy...
Does it scare you at all that Paul Volker seems to be Mr. Obama’s number one financial advisor? Four years from now, Mr. Obama may look more like Former-President Jimmy Carter than any of us care to imagine.

Hillary may have dodged a bullet! Just like this year, the best contest in 2012 may well be the Dem Presidential Primary.

Of Mice & Wizards

A good Biography illustrates the whole life of its subject. By that, I mean not only that you see cradle to crave, but also that it depicts the affects of time and events in their life. It portrays their inconsistencies and foibles along with their strengths and triumphs. And what’s more, there are life lessons to learn in the depictions of the individual’s actions and reactions in the events and moments of their life.

One such biographical story with business life lessons is told in Neal Gabler’s Walt Disney, The Triumph of the American Imagination. The story highlights the beginnings of The Mickey Mouse Club.

Gabler tell us that, “the biggest boost to Mickey Mouse, aside from sound itself, occurred not through Walt’s promotions, which were scattershot, but through those of Harry Woodin, the young manager of the Fox Dome Theater in Ocean Park, a Los Angeles suburb.

On his own initiative late that summer (1929) Woodin had organized a Mickey Mouse Club, filling his theater on Saturday afternoons with children who took a Mickey Mouse pledge, performed in an impromptu Mickey Mouse band, and then watched Mickey Mouse cartoons.

Woodin had invited Walt to one of the matinees and Walt said, ‘he got quite a kick to see about one thousand kids cheering for MICKEY MOUSE.’ But Woodin himself, not unlike Walt Disney, had larger aspirations. He convinced Walt that what he was doing locally he could also do nationally.” (page 139)

It doesn’t take a lot to grow or kill a product, service or artistic creation. Often seemingly imperceptible shifts in momentum or emotion cause explosive growth or immediate death. These shifts are the result of thousands of small decisions like this one Walt made in Ocean Park.

Had Walt been a product of this time though, instead of seeing the boost such an initiative would lend to his promotions, he’d might have seen the need to protect his rights and the rights of all creators rather than bringing Woodin into his fold and leveraging his local organization and events.

I can see a busload of Intellectual Property lawyers descending upon the Fox Dome theater and it’s hapless manager, delivering court injunctions and summons before Woodin could sing, “M*I*C*K*E*Y*M*O*U*S*E!”

You think I exaggerate? Well then think back just a month ago. On September 8, the Judge announced that JK Rowling had prevailed in her Copyright lawsuit against what has been described as one of her “most ardent fans.”

Steven Vander Ark is the creator of one of the most popular Potter/Rowling Fan Websites. He apparently went too far when he decided to publish the content of the website as a Lexicon of Potter Series characters.

The result of the suit was to divide Potter Series fans into pro-Rowling and pro-Vander Ark camps. When it was reported that Vander Ark broke down and cried on the stand, press reports showed sympathy for his position.

Rowling released a statement on September 8, saying that she "took no pleasure at all in bringing legal action and am delighted that this issue has been resolved favorably. I went to court to uphold the right of authors everywhere to protect their own original work."

Walt thought differently. He found a plethora of avenues to promote his own original work and let others worry about promoting and protecting their own.

Almost 80-years later, Mickey Mouse is an icon that yet another generation of young kids can recognize from a silhouette of a cartoon head with those trademarked ears. And it is estimated that more than 10 million people a year visit Disneyland and Disney World.

I don’t know if time will be as kind to Rowling’s original work. The Potter craze seems to be wearing a little thinner and it seems that she is in the thirteenth of her fifteen “Warhol” minutes.

Oh, there are plenty of fans left, but they seem a bit less ardent. For many, the passion is reserved for the love story of Edward Cullen and Bella Swan. I very much doubt that Stephanie Meyer will be sharing either her market share or the royalties with Rowling in gratitude for her selfless protection of Author’s Rights.

Maybe, just maybe, Potter has octogenarian legs like Mickey. But honestly, you don’t keep those legs when you divide your fan base and represent authors at the expense of your most ardent fans.

I’m betting the only way Harry Potter still has any relevance in the marketplace of 2088 will be if Disney’s brilliant Imagineering staff turns Rowling’s original work into a Disney ride.

The New Normal

“Governments may hold ordinary shares,

but they will never be ordinary shareholders.”
- Financial Times Editorial, October 15, 2008

An October 15 Editorial in the Financial Times outlines the problems associated with governments taking ownership shares in banks. You can read it for yourself on the Financial Times Editorial link to the left of this blog.

This morning the Swiss joined the party as they purchased a 9% share in UBS. The two good signs were that Credit Suisse declined such a purchase, and members of the Swiss Parliament on both sides of the aisle had the good sense to disapprove.

We’ve all lived with government regulation, but there is a huge difference between government regulation of it's citizens and privately held businesses, and government ownership.

When the fear of economic ruin and the loathing of bankers has receded we will see signs that government ownership in our banks is stifling growth, service and innovation. Oh, and competition. But it may be too late by then.

Mr. Paulson has not announced an exit strategy.

If you think this goes away quickly or quietly, tell me then, when do you think the TSA will vacate the Airports? Exactly! What you remember as normal pre-911 will never return. The TSA is the new normal in Airports.

A prolonged financial crisis will entrench the new normal (normal= our government owning portions of banks.)

The Paulsen take-over plan (you call it what you want to me it tastes like a hostile take-over plan!) includes a total of $250 billion for buying shares in thousands of banks over the next couple of months. So far, Paulsen has only spent $125 Billion.

The bottom line is that our current administration has used every crisis to take over more and more of this Nation’s institutions and services. They have been aided and abetted by a Congress walking in lock-step with them – despite all the tough talk and occasional rogue votes.

Talk about regime change!

I’m just not sure that Paulsen understands the difference between running the Treasury Department and Alcoa (where he was Chairman when he was tapped for the job.) The job was to restore liquidity and confidence, Henry, not the vertical integration of Treasury.

I’m betting the airlines are next.

There is an Alternative

“The People’s Bank of Scotland (formerly known as the Royal Bank of Scotland) will soon be 57 percent owned by the British state. A 40 percent ownership stake in Lloyds-TSB-HBOS following their merger is also anticipated. The British state already owned Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley. The Dutch state owns the Dutch rump of ABN-AMRO and Fortis Nederland. The US government owns 79.9 percent of AIG. Nine major financial US institutions have agreed to participate in both the US Treasury’s ‘voluntary’ capital purchase program … These partial, majority or complete nationalisations were necessary to stop the complete collapse of the financial sectors in the countries concerned … But the state ownership and control phase should be as short as possible. The state is a dreadful owner and manager of banks and other financial institutions. It can just about manage a central bank - a much simpler job than managing a commercial bank, and one where there is a natural monopoly that makes comparisons of performance difficult. Even so, the job is often not done particularly well … Anything else the state touches that involves the production, distribution and sale of private … goods, becomes dreck very soon.”

- Willem Buiter, Professor,

London School of Economics and Political Science,

writing in his Maverecom Blog on Ft. com, October 14, 2008

The announcement that the US Government would take a stake in potentially thousands of banks and spend close to $250 Billion did nothing today to stem the losses on the Stock Market – with the Dow closing down 733 points and the S&P off by 9%.

Perhaps traders were thinking about the creation of the TSA and the US Government take-over of Airport Security. That has been an unqualified success born of a crisis – now hasn’t it!

History has proven time and time again that free-markets do not stay free unless policed – in fact, everyone is for free-markets right up until they no longer personally profit from them. The failure we are now living is as much a failure of appropriate regulation of those markets by the same people who have moved from providing liquidity to taking an ownership stake.

As Professor Buiter has pointed out, the government doesn't DO market services very well. In fact, unless it has something to do with transfering wealth from individuals and businesses to the state or armed conflict they just don't do it well. (And there is no proof they do either of those things very efficiently.)

Maybe it is time to think of a truly radical approach to banking in general. While I do not believe that the capitalist free-market should be demolished, nor do I believe that it is finished, but I do believe there is a better model already in place for the management of money and that is the cooperative, not-for-profit, not-for-charity, but for-service model of the Credit Union.

While it is quite true that poor management of a credit union can result in failure, it is also true that for the most part, failure has not been wide-spread in the Mid to Large-sized Credit Union.

Since a Credit Union is cooperatively owned by its members, Credit Unions may return their profits to their members in some combination of more personal services, lower fees or dividends.

The mid to large-sized Credit Union tends to be quite well capitalized and maintains decent liquidity. And compensation of senior staff is quite sensible, with reasonable gaps between the salaries and bonuses of front-line employees and CEOs.

Management of the modern Credit Union is as well educated and as capable as the modern bank manager. What’s more, Credit Union staff and management tend to know their customer – the member – quite well and deal with the person rather than simply the credit score or application. And as for security, all the services insured at a bank are also insured at a credit union.

Here is the best part. We don’t need to have the US Government decide that banks are illegal or should be abolished in order to make such a revolutionary shift. You don’t need to join the international press or the various governments that are kicking the banking dog while it is down.

All you have to do is join a credit union. It is a viable alternative. I think you will like what it means to be a member.